Confidence Is Contagious—And So Is Fear
What a strange, unsettling moment in American life.
One minute, the President launches a trade war. The next, he walks it back. But the thing about instability is—it doesn’t really go away just because someone says, never mind. The damage is already done.
I’ve been in conversations all week with people trying to make sense of what’s happening. Consumer confidence has tanked. Tourism is slowing. The dollar isn’t as attractive as it used to be. Companies are pulling back, credit card delinquencies are ticking up, and the odds of a recession? Rising fast.
The CEO of KB Home told me flat out this week: “Even with the temporary pause, the 10% blanket tariffs—especially those targeting China—are going to suppress billions in economic activity every month. I think there’s a false sense of relief out there. What remains is still incredibly disruptive. And let’s be honest—negotiating comprehensive trade agreements in 90 days isn’t realistic. That uncertainty is already impacting how companies plan and invest.”
And that’s the word I keep coming back to: uncertainty.
It’s not just about markets or interest rates—it’s in the air. A friend of mine lost his job last week. Another saw investors pull out of a deal. People are freezing up. Not because they’re panicking, but because they’re unsure. Do I hire? Do I grow? Or do I hunker down?
And that’s how a slowdown begins. Enough people pulling back creates a ripple that turns into a wave. It doesn’t take much.
This is what I think a lot of policymakers—and frankly, many leaders—miss. Confidence is delicate. It doesn’t respond well to chaos. People watch each other. And when you start seeing your neighbor postpone that project or your friend get laid off, it changes your own behavior. You don’t want to be the last one to act.
The last couple of weeks haven’t exactly inspired confidence. The spin, the justifications, the backpedaling—it’s been painful to watch. Leadership matters. And right now, we’re all paying the price for a deficit of it.
I know people are nervous. Some of you watched your retirement accounts shrink. Some of you are wondering if your job—or your business—is safe. And while I won’t pretend to have a crystal ball, I am getting some early signals most people don’t see.
And I’ll tell you this: the waters ahead still look rough.
We’ve never had a recession in the age of AI. And when the next one hits, companies are going to look real hard at what they can automate. Not next year—right away.
That’s where we’re heading. The question is: are you prepared?
If you’ve got savings you’ll need in the next few years, consider setting that aside. You don’t need to win the market right now. You need peace of mind. You need clarity. That’s what will help you sleep at night and stay level-headed.
There will be opportunities ahead. Real ones. But you have to make it there first.
So hang tight. Be smart. And remember—confidence, just like fear, is contagious. Let’s try to spread the right one.