The Jobs Report Was Ugly — And AI Is About to Make It Worse
Hey everyone, hope your summer is going well and that you’re getting some time outside before it all turns to back-to-school and work chaos.
I wanted to share a few thoughts that have been bouncing around in my head after this past week’s jobs report. To put it bluntly, it was brutal. May and June job growth numbers were revised down by 258,000. July came in far below expectations with just 73,000 jobs created. Even worse, three-quarters of those were in one field: health care. As one analyst put it, “The labor market is deteriorating quickly.”
And that’s not a throwaway line. It was the weakest 3-month job creation stretch since COVID.
The markets took a hit. President Trump, clearly frustrated, responded by firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I doubt that’ll fix anything.
So what’s going on?
There’s a lot at play, tariffs, reshoring, inflation, shifting global dynamics, but I want to talk about what I think is the deeper story: AI and the white-collar job collapse already in motion.
When the Tech Execs Start Getting Nervous…
I had dinner recently with a CEO of ProTech Company. We were talking shop, and he told me, “We just cut almost 20% of our team. Chances are we’re going to do it again soon. We’re finding real efficiencies with AI. And my daughter? She’s in college, watching this happen in real time, and she’s already decided she’s not going into tech.”
He paused and added, “Honestly, I don’t know what her classmates are going to do.”
That stuck with me.
My attorney told me something similar: “AI can draft a motion in an hour that used to take a first-year associate a week. And it’s better.” Meanwhile, law school applications are surging 21% this year. People are rushing to what they think is a safe, stable profession, but it might not be safe at all.
And it’s not just lawyers or tech workers. A professor at UVM told me they’ve had alumni reaching out, still unemployed, driving Uber just to get by. Recent Federal Reserve data backs this up: the unemployment rate for college-educated men is now the same as for those without a degree. That’s… not supposed to happen.
The College Premium Is Fading
Remember when going to college was the guaranteed path to stability? That narrative is crumbling. AI is already taking jobs that used to be considered secure, customer service, entry-level sales, marketing analysts, junior attorneys, even management analysts. According to Microsoft, those four job categories alone make up 5.6 million roles, most of them held by recent grads.
You can easily imagine half of them gone in the next few years.
Meanwhile, jobs that are the least automatable?
• Dredge operators
• Maids and housekeepers
• Phlebotomists
• Roofers
• HVAC repair
• Nursing assistants
Not exactly what college career counselors are pitching. But the market doesn’t care about your résumé. It cares about what can’t be replaced by software.
So Where Do We Go From Here?
I’m not trying to be alarmist, I’m trying to be honest.
This shift is real. Just like robotics hit factories over the past 30 years, AI is now hitting offices. And it’s moving much faster. One expert pointed out that AI models are doubling in capability every seven months. That’s exponential acceleration. Even I’m shocked at the pace.
So what do we do?
First, we have to acknowledge what’s happening. This isn’t theoretical anymore. It’s showing up in jobs data.
Second, we need to help the next generation rethink their path. I’m not telling every kid to become a roofer. But I am saying this: If someone you know has a passion for something real, tangible, and needed, something that doesn’t live in a spreadsheet or rely on sitting in front of a screen all day—they should go for it.
Health care is one bright spot. With an aging population and a massive shortage of nurses and aides, that demand isn’t going anywhere soon. But even there, I’m cautious: those jobs are often government-funded, and the budget outlook is anything but generous.
The reality is, we may all need to get a little more hands-on, a little more resourceful, and a little more resilient.
Final Thought
August 1, 2025 may go down as the moment when AI’s impact on the labor market became undeniable. The hard truth is that a lot of good people with good degrees are going to struggle to find meaningful work unless we start preparing now, as individuals, as families, and as a country.
We have to retrain, rethink, and rebuild how we approach jobs and opportunity in this next chapter.
So no, I’m not thrilled about this trend. But I’d rather call it what it is than pretend it’s not happening.
Stay smart, stay grounded, and if you can, get good with a wrench.
– Daniel