Trump’s Trade War: A Self-Inflicted Economic Wound
“I didn’t think Trump would actually implement tariffs—I thought it was just a negotiating tactic.”
I’ve heard this sentiment over and over, both in conversations and across the media. And honestly, it’s been frustrating to watch. Not only did Trump go through with the tariffs, but he has thrown the U.S. into an unnecessary and destructive trade war—one that will hurt American consumers, manufacturers, and farmers alike.
Let’s break this down:
• Higher Prices for Everyone: Tariffs are essentially a tax that gets passed down to consumers. Every time you buy something that contains imported materials—whether it’s a car, a smartphone, or even groceries—you’re going to pay more.
• The Midwest and Agricultural States Are Getting Slammed: China and other trade partners are retaliating by slashing their purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Farmers, already struggling with tight margins, are now facing an even tougher road.
• Market Uncertainty Stifles Growth: Businesses plan their investments based on stability. When tariffs are being adjusted on a whim, it becomes impossible to plan ahead, which discourages hiring and expansion. The stock market has already reacted negatively to this instability.
Job Cuts Are Piling Up
As if the tariffs weren’t bad enough, the latest job cuts report is alarming. In February, U.S. employers announced plans to cut 172,000 jobs—the highest since July 2020 and one of the highest monthly figures in decades. This includes 62,000 federal employees, and that number is expected to rise, especially with Trump’s plan to eliminate 80,000 jobs from the VA alone.
What’s driving this?
• AI’s Role in Job Cuts: Right now, one of the only things propping up the stock market is the AI boom. But AI is also a job killer. I personally know executives who have frozen hiring or outright eliminated positions because AI tools allow them to do more with fewer people.
• Recessions Give Companies Cover to Cut Jobs: Historically, companies don’t aggressively cut workers until a recession hits. But when they do, they use the downturn as an excuse to slash headcount. Add AI-driven job losses into that equation, and the outlook becomes even more concerning.
Are We Already in a Recession?
The warning signs are everywhere. February’s massive layoffs, combined with a weak Federal Reserve survey, suggest we’re teetering on the edge of a downturn. Confidence is already sinking, and widespread federal layoffs are about to throw thousands of households into financial chaos.
This isn’t just theoretical. Cuts at places like the NIH and USAID have already derailed the careers of thousands of researchers and non-profit workers. And as more layoffs hit, it will ripple across industries.
Trump’s Economic Chaos
This isn’t just bad luck or the natural ebb and flow of the economy—this is a self-inflicted crisis. Trump seems willing, even eager, to drag the country into economic turmoil through:
1. Trade war blunders that raise costs for Americans and stifle business investment.
2. Mass federal layoffs that will destabilize entire communities.
3. Erratic leadership that fuels uncertainty and weakens economic confidence.
I’ve seen a lot of bad economic policies in my lifetime, but this trade war might be the dumbest. So do I think Trump’s actions will lead us into a recession?
Yes. Yes, I do.
And if it plays out the way it’s shaping up, this one might feel very different from anything we’ve experienced before.