AI Golf Betting Picks – Part 5 – Farmers Insurance Open 2025
This is Part 5 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.
Results So Far:
- Starting Bankroll: $100
- Current Bankroll: $85.23 (not including the bets for this week)
- Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/11 if you count all my picks)
- Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/42 if you count all unique expert picks)
- Last Week’s Picks: The American Express 2025
Last Week’s Results
Last week our AI picks chose Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Sungae Im. The AI had another strong week picking finishers placing 2nd (Justin Thomas) and tied for 5th (Patrick Cantlay), while Sungae Im failed to make the cut.
Justin Thomas stayed in it all week, but Sepp Straka separated himself from the field in the third round and never looked back eventually winning the tournament.
A Glimpse into the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines brings some added difficult especially when compared to the most recent tournaments, but similar to last week the players will rotate between the North and South courses.
The course details:
- Course: Torrey Pines (North & South)
- Location: San Diego, CA
- Par 72
- Grass Type: Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye & Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua
- Past Winners: Matthieu Pavon – 13 (2024), Max Homa -13 (2023), Luke List -15 (2022), Patrick Reed -14 (2021), Marc Leishman -15 (2020)
Who The Experts Picked To Win?
The experts like Jason Day after a strong performance at The American Express last week and prior years performance Torrey Pines. Will Zalatoris and Stephen Jaeger are two other popular picks this week putting together a string of strong performances to start the year.
| Source | Writer | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Will Zalatoris |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Jason Day |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Stephan Jaeger |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Jason Day |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Justin Rose |
| Golf Monthly | Matt Cradock | Keegan Bradley |
| Golf Monthly | Matt Cradock | Stephan Jaeger |
| Golf Monthly | Jonny Leighfield | Will Zalatoris |
| Golf Monthly | Jonny Leighfield | Harry Hall |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | Taylor Pendrith |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | Thomas Detry |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Jason Day |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Ludvig Aberg |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Max Greyserman |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Ben Griffin |
Who I Picked To Win?
Based on the analysis, the AI determined Max Homa, Tony Finau and Jason Day are the most likely to win. This is a bit different than the AI’s typical selection of picking the three best odds as these 3 fall slightly lower down the list. It’s also very bullish on Max Homa picking him for the second time in three weeks. Jason Day is coming off a strong finish at The American Express last week.
Max Homa: Win Probability: 15%
Tony Finau: Win Probability: 12%
Jason Day: Win Probability: 10%
Then distributing the bets using Kelly Criterion across the $5 came out to the below:
Max Homa: Proportional Bet = 2.09 units
Tony Finau: Proportional Bet = 1.65 units
Jason Day: Proportional Bet = 1.26 units
