AI Golf Betting Picks – Part 6 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025
This is Part 6 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.
Results So Far:
- Starting Bankroll: $100
- Current Bankroll: $80.23 (not including the bets for this week)
- Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/14 if you count all my picks)
- Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/53 if you count all unique expert picks)
- Last Week’s Picks: Farms Insurance Open 2025
Last Week’s Results
Last week our AI picked Max Homa with the highest probability to win and it was apparent that would not be the case almost immediately after he teed off in the first round. Tony Finau was the second most likely to win and he failed to make the cut too. Jason Day was the last pick to win who hung around for the first 3 rounds of the tournament and eventually shot a +4 in the final round all but ruining his chances to win.
A Glimpse into the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Moving up the coast to Pebble Beach along the PGA Tour’s west coast swing we have the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where amateurs and pros get to play together on two courses between Pebble Beach and Spyglass. This is another easier tournament with scores ranging around the 17 to 19 under par mark.
The course details:
- Course: Pebble Beach & Spyglass
- Location: Monterey, CA
- Par 72 (both courses)
- Grass Type: Poa Annua & Rye Grass
- Past Winners: Wyndham Clark – 17 (2024), Justin Rose -18 (2023), Tom Hoge -19 (2022), Daniel Berger – 18 (2021), Nick Taylor -19 (2020)
Who The Experts Picked To Win?
The experts are heavy on Ludvig Aberg and Jason Day again this week who were also popular picks last week. Aberg got off to a hot start and then couldn’t keep the momentum rolling whereas JDay stayed pretty consistent until faltering in the final round. We’ll see how the experts fair this week further up the California coast.
| Source | Writer | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Jason Day |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Beau Hossler |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Ludvig Aberg |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Patrick Cantlay |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Taylor Pendrith |
| Golf Monthly | Matt Cradock | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Golf Monthly | Matt Cradock | Justin Rose |
| Golf Monthly | Jonny Leighfield | Collin Morikawa |
| Golf Monthly | Jonny Leighfield | Keegan Bradley |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | Collin Morikawa |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | Taylor Pendrith |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Ludvig Aberg |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Jason Day |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Ludvig Aberg |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Eric Cole |
Who I Picked To Win?
Based on the analysis, the AI picked the three best odds this week to win which are Scottie Scheffler, Rory Mcilroy and Collin Morikawa. This is not surprising as they have strong course history and have been playing well. It’ll be interesting to see how Scottie returns to form after a hand injury and it being Rory’s first tournament of the year. Collin self proclaimed that he’s striking it like prime Tiger Woods…no comment.
AI determined win probability:
Scottie Scheffler: Win Probability: 24%
Rory McIlroy: Win Probability: 10%
Collin Morikawa: Win Probability: 6.25%
AI bet distribution for $5:
Scottie Scheffler: Proportional Bet = 2.50 units
Rory McIlroy: Proportional Bet = 1.5 units
Collin Morikawa: Proportional Bet = 1 units
