i write

This is Part 7 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

• Starting Bankroll: $100
• Current Bankroll: $94.73 (not including the bets for this week)
• Outright Winners Picked: 2 (2/17 if you count all my picks)
• Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/63 if you count all unique expert picks)
• Last Week’s Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025

Last Week’s Results

Unfortunately my scheduled didn’t allow for a post to be made for last week’s Waste Management Open, however our AI model had success at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The top picked player was Scottie Scheffler, not surprisingly, but it was Rory McIlroy as the number two pick who pulled out a big win for us.

With Rory and the AI’s win at Pebble Beach it brought our bankroll back to $94.73 6 weeks into the experiment.

A Glimpse into the 2025 Genesis Invitational

With the recent wildfires in SoCal the Genesis had to move to Torrey Pines so I’ve copy-pasta’d the details from a few weeks ago since past results don’t mean much now for Riviera Country Club.

The course details:

• Course: Torrey Pines (South Course)
• Location: San Diego, CA
• Par 72
• Grass Type: Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye & Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua
• Past Winners: Matthieu Pavon – 13 (2024), Max Homa -13 (2023), Luke List -15 (2022), Patrick Reed -14 (2021), Marc Leishman -15 (2020)

Who The Experts Picked To Win?

The only player that had multiple selections this week by the experts is Rory McIlroy. Rory dominated in difficult conditions at Pebble Beach to capture his first victory of the year and the experts are doubling down on him this week at Torrey Pines.

Who A(I) Picked To Win?

This may be AI’s most difficult week as it’s comparing a field of players to a tournament that doesn’t line up with the course that it typically plays. I provide next to no guidance and let it do it’s thing. Fortunately AI is typically cautious always picking the best players to win. We’ll see if AI can shake off the confusion and go back to back with picking the correct winner this week as it picks the players with the 3 best odds. In this case AI think the top 3 players have a 90% chance of beating the field.

AI determined win probability:

1. Scottie Scheffler: Win Probability: 40%

2. Rory McIlroy: Win Probability: 30%

3. Collin Morikawa: Win Probability: 20%

AI bet distribution for $5:

1. Scottie Scheffler: Proportional Bet = 2.12 units

2. Rory McIlroy: Proportional Bet = 1.69 units

3. Collin Morikawa: Proportional Bet = 1.19 units