• Archive: Speaking of the Rockies’ “Homegrown” Offense….
For all the talk of draft and develop, 2021 data suggests some problems with the Rockies’ system.
Sep 3, 2021
Back in June, I wrote about the Rockies’ offense — it was not good then and has not improved much since. Here’s how all MLB teams rank in terms of wRC+ where 100 is league average.1
Source: FanGraphs
That’s right: The baseball team that plays half of its games at Coors Field is tied with the Pirates for the lowest wRC+ in baseball. That borders on unbelievable. The Rockies have hit 150 home runs — 10 of them grand slams, the most in Rockies history — which is 22nd in baseball. (For what it’s worth, the Rockies are better than the Cardinals with 147). By comparison, the Giants, who play half of their games at Oracle Park, lead the league in home runs with 201 (although Mike Petriello points out that recent changes to Oracle may be affecting the numbers).
Also note that the top ten teams are all playoff contenders. Offense matters. Moreover, these teams have invested in data and/or personnel while the Rockies have had other priorities.
Now consider the wRC+ rankings of individual Rockies:
Source: FanGraphs
Three players are above average as measured by wRC+: C.J. Cron, Connor Joe, and Brendan Rodgers. The two best players, Cron and Joe, are not products of the Rockies’ development system; rather, both were signed as free agents in the offseason. For all the talk of the Rockies as a “draft-and-develop team,” they have not built a particularly good offense, at least as measured by wRC+, since 2017.
That said, watching Brendan Rodgers come into his own has been a treat. He’s come to have a reliable presence at the plate. Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, and Charlie Blackmon have all had disappointing years offensively though they are close to being league average, and McMahon has spent much of the season above it.
One other point is worth noting: The Rockies outfield has little offensive value. Raimel Tapia, Yonathan Daza, Sam Hilliard, and Garrett Hampson have all had miserable years offensively. None of them is above 80 in terms of wRC+. If Hampson continues to shine as a center fielder, the Rockies may be able to compensate for his lack of offense, but they cannot continue to carry unproductive outfielders.
All of this suggests possible systemic evaluation and developmental issues with the Rockies’ road record (18-50) indicating an even-more-pressing need to address the Coors Field effect.
As it turns out, this week, the Rockies began advertising for three “Baseball Operations Research and Development” positions. (Read the job listings here.) I don’t know enough about these jobs to evaluate what the Rockies are asking for, but I do know that $85,000-$95,000 for this kind of position is not a competitive salary.
In related news, Thomas Harding reported that Bill Schmidt has begun filling positions in the Rockies’ front office. Schmidt insists the general manager position has not yet been determined, but all indications are that he has the job. (In this piece, Sheryl Ring explains how easy it is for front offices to get around the “Selig Rule,” so should Schmidt get the position, it would be no surprise.)
As Schmidt has made his media rounds, he has spoken — as Rockies general managers before him have — of the team’s reliance on drafting and developing players. wRC+ indicates that strategy as implemented by the Rockies has not been terribly successful for some time. If the Rockies plan to contend, they will need better data and new ideas. While it appears they’re trying to rebuild their depleted analytics department, low salaries suggest that the Rockies still aren’t terribly invested in the science. (Organizations spend money on things they value.)
Similarly, front office promotions from within do nothing to contradict the appearance that these changes are little more than performative. The Rockies cannot bring themselves, either because of financial choices or team culture, to embrace anything new. The odds are they cannot win until they do.
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Down on the Farm
- Jim Bowden has updated his list of the Top 50 Prospects. Hello, #7, Zac Veen. (Here he is on “Taco Tuesday.” The Grizzlies are so much fun.)
Fresno Grizzlies @FresnoGrizzlies
Celebrate #TacoTuesday by bidding on a game-worn, signed, Fresno Tacos jersey! 🌮⚾️ Enter the auction here: bit.ly/21TacoJerseyAu…
9:46 PM ∙ Aug 31, 2021
* The crisis in MiLB housing is receiving more attention, this time from J.J. Cooper. It’s past time for MLB to deal with this issue.
* Nick Groke has some insights on the Rockies’ MiLB system. (Groke also has some reporting here on David Dahl, who, clearly, is no longer a prospect, but I found this really interesting.)
* Don’t lose track of the Rockie’s Arizona Complex League team. Kyle Newman reports that the Rockies think Adael Amador and Benny Montgomery will be playing at Coors Field in four or five years. The future looks promising.
Accolades (and Some Gossip)
C.J. Cron has been named the August NL Player of the Month:
Source: MLB Press Release
Cron is the 11th Rockie to earn this award. (The most recent was Charlie Blackmon in June 2019.)
Last week, Bob Nightengale reported this:
Bob Nightengale @BNightengaleC.J. Cron, who turned down an offer from the #Dodgers during the winter and bet on himself to be an everyday player with the #Rockies, hits a 3-run HR in the 1st inning vs. LA. Cron now has 24 homers and 76 RBI with a .914 OPS
So Cron decided against being a Dodger, which is interesting — and suggests that perhaps the odds of the Rockies re-signing him are good. While Cron did sign a 2021 one-year contract for $1 million with the Rockies, it also includes incentives: He can earn additional performance bonuses: “$200,000 each for 50, 75, 100 and 125, and $300,000 apiece for 140 and 145. He would get a $500,000 one-time assignment bonus if traded.” Cron has been, hands down, one of the Rockies’ most valuable players and a terrific investment.
Old Friends
- I’m still a Tyler Anderson fan, so a possible return to Seattle in 2022 sounds like a good fit to me, especially since fellow old friend Tom Murphy is catching there.
Corey Brock @CoreyBrockMLB- Gerardo Parra is now selling a limited Parra Shark speaker. As the ad explains, “Be happy as long as you live!” You can read more here. (I was a little disappointed “Baby Shark” didn’t start auto-playing when I opened the website.)
What I’m Reading, Watching, and Listening To
- Neil Paine’s “The Best, Worst And Weirdest Stats Of The 2021 MLB Season”(538.com) — You knew the #RoadRockies would make this one, but so do Ryan McMahon and Raimel Tapia. (Here’s an early prediction: The Rockies will attempt to trade and then non-tender Tapia.)
- Patrick Saunders’ “Will the Rockies Be Spenders This Offseason? Colorado Faces Major Payroll Questions with Contracts Coming off the Books” (Denver Post) — Saunders does the math. (Here’s another prediction: The Rockies will go to shorter but more lucrative contracts, like the Daniel Murphy deal. No more Ian Desmond or Nolan Arenado long-term commitments.)
- Joelle Milholm’s “September Could Be a Good Indicator of the Rockies’ Future”(Purple Row) — For Milholm, September will be more meaningful than the Rockies’ record in the next 30 games.
- Justin Wick’s “Austin Gomber Has Shown a Wild Pitch Mix in His Last Three Starts” (Purple Row) — I remain bullish on Gomber as a Rockie. I’ve come to suspect that part of Gomber’s issues arise from the fatigue of this being his first season as a rotation starter.
- Drew Goodman’s “Rockies Starter Austin Gomber” (The Drew Goodman Podcast) — I always appreciate Goodman’s podcast because I think players are comfortable with him, and they have very honest conversation. Last week, Goodman spoke with Gomber, and the week before, Kyle Freeland. Both pitchers are clear about one thing: They believe the Rockies are close. Much of the baseball world may not believe in the Rockies, but I think they believe in themselves — and I think the front office will spend some money in the offseason to show they do, too.
- Robert Murray’s “St. Louis Discussed Perameters of Trevor Story Trade” (Redbird Rants) — Cardinal fans’ fixation on reconstructing the Rockies’ former left side is fascinating. Were Arenado and Story an electric combination? Absolutely. Are their best days behind them? Very probably. Here’s what Murray writes: “Story could be a candidate for a lucrative one-year deal similar to what Semien signed with the Blue Jays. A one-year, $18 or so million deal could stretch the books for the Cardinals in 2022, but that and other upgrades throughout the roster would give them a real chance at competing for a title in Yadier Molina’s last season.” Maybe. Consider me skeptical.
Weekend Walk-off
There has not been a lot of joy this season for the #RoadRockies, and that’s been true for Trevor Story, too, who’s had a down year.
However, his bat flip game is a thing of beauty. See for yourself:
Colorado Rockies @Rockies
His bat flips have become their own art form.
Thanks for reading —
Renee
1 This data is current as of September 2, 2021.