Somewhere Under the Skies of Wessex

Climate Change

Just how much will net zero cost the UK?

The UN Climate Change Conference UK 2021, otherwise known as COP26 runs until the 12th November. The stated aim of the conference is to

Secure global net zero and keep 1.5 degrees within reach.

The document COP26 Explained states that;

If we continue as we are, temperatures will carry on rising, bringing even more catastrophic flooding, bush fires, extreme weather and destruction of species

To help ameliorate the effects of global warning, the UK government has pledged we will as a nation be carbon neutral by 2050. The government has already closed down the coal fired power stations, replacing them with wind turbines and solar farms. Other measures include banning the sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2040, replacing domestic gas boilers with heat pumps, and compelling businesses to decarbonize.

The Office for BudgetResponsibility has calculated that in order to hit the net zero target it will cost the UK economy a staggering £1.4 trillion by 2050.

I'll repeat that. £1,400,000,000,000.

We are told that there is no choice, all scientists agree global warming is happening, that it is driven by human activity, and this is the price we will have to pay to achieve net zero.

However, consider this article produced by Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Ph.D. at the Center for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen. He states that;

In the last 800,000 years there have been 8 ice ages, each lasting approximately 100,000 years, separated by interglacial periods of between 10,000 and 35,000 years.

Both hemispheres are affected by this ice age cycle. We can also see that the CO2 level varies with the ice ages: When it is cold there is less CO2 and when it is warmer the level is higher. We believe, that this CO2 feedback has significance as even small changes in solar radiation have had great effects. CO2 works as an intensifier.

Ice cores from both Antarctica and Greenland show that the last ice age started to become milder 19,000 years ago, completely in accordance with increased solar radiation from the earth’s favourable orientation in its orbit around the sun.

He goes on the discuss climate ripples and dramatic fluctuations in climate, and how they are caused by an interaction between the atmosphere and ocean currents.

As Dr Steffensen says, humanity had nothing to do with the end of the last Ice Age. The climate of the Earth has continued to change since that time, and will continue to do so forever more as a result of factors including solar energy, ocean currents and plate tectonics. I don't doubt that the climate is changing; the Earth is a living organism and it is only natural that it will. I also accept it is possible that human activity may have contributed to recent changes.

One person who takes this view is Dr Roy W Spencer Ph.D. He has been branded a climate denier, but if you read his articles, you will realise he is anything but. In his article, he explains that he believes the climate system has warmed and that CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning contributes to that warming. Where he disagrees with the alarmists however is their insistence that we are in the midst of a crisis. He does not accept that we should immediately embrace expensive and ineffective sources of alternative energy. He takes the view that;

It will be much worse for humanity if we abandon fossil fuels before alternative technologies are abundant, affordable, and practical. Human flourishing requires access to affordable energy, which is required for almost all human activities.

It is immoral to deny fossil-fuelled electricity to the world’s poor, and its replacement in even the richest countries still destroys prosperity, especially for the poor.

Philip Davies, Conservative MP for Shipley, recently wrote to one of his constituents to make the same point. In his letter he argues that attempting to achieve net zero would be

Utterly futile, virtue signalling, gesture politics which would also bankrupt the country along with many families. The estimated cost of getting from less than one per cent of global carbon emissions to net zero is estimated to be £1 trillion in the UK – that is money the country and many of my constituents can ill afford.

It would be much more sensible to spend money on adapting to changes in the climate rather than an unrealistic view that we are going to change the world's climate.

He's quite right. It would be immoral to push ahead with the net zero. policy when there is no cheap alternative to fossil fuels, and when the cost of pursuing such a policy would consign so many of us to economic and fuel poverty.

Boris Johnson may enjoy virtue signalling at COP26, but he should not forget the hard working, hard pressed people of this country. Come the next election if all he can offer is net zero and declining living standards he will soon see his 80 seat majority disappear.

#climate #politics