sofr1na

#71

A strong Iranian polity consolidated through a broad and credible popular mandate would run counter to the material and strategic interests of many regional actors because it would fundamentally alter the regional balance of power and erode existing mechanisms of containment.

Such an outcome would enhance Iran’s state capacity, international legitimacy, and bargaining power, reducing the effectiveness of sanctions, coercive diplomacy, and external leverage exercised by neighboring states. For Arab governments, this would weaken their ability to shape regional security architectures, energy market dynamics, and conflict mediation processes in arenas such as Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf, while constraining their reliance on external security guarantees. For Turkey, a politically consolidated Iran would emerge as a more autonomous and competitive middle power, limiting Ankara’s strategic maneuverability in shared geopolitical theaters and diminishing its relative influence.

Consequently, these actors tend to oppose any scenario in which Iran transitions from internal fragmentation or managed containment into a cohesive, electorally legitimized, and strategically assertive state.